Championships aren't won in April, but they can be lost in April.
Some writers, before the season began, deemed the Boston Red Sox the odds on favorite to win the World Series this season. Nearly an eighth of the way into the new season and the Red Sox look like they could possibly end up with the worst record in the American League East. But how?
On paper the team appears loaded. Countless all-star appearances among the players on their roster. Talent, rings, veterans, and youth are everywhere on this roster. So how does a team that appears to be so good, do so poorly? It's a combination of factors. I believe General Manager, Theo Epstein saw holes in his roster and signed the big name free agents this past off season to plug the holes.
Example one: Jonathan Papelbon, "star closer" for the Red Sox is on the decline and not many people have taken notice. His ERA in past seasons hovered between the high ones and low twos. His 2010 season showed a different Papelbon. His ERA jumped to nearly four-3.90 to be exact-his walks nearly quadrupled from two seasons before, and he nearly doubled the amount of wild pitches he threw in his whole career. From a saves standpoint, he still remained in the high thirties, but they quality of his saves depleted. His saves were coming in games with three run leads instead of one run leads in the past. Even this season, he has three save in his teams total six wins, but all three saves were in games with three run leads and a lot less pressure.
The other "star" the Red Sox harbored in their bullpen was Hideki Okajima. An All-Star reliever in 2007, and putting up great stats in 2008 as well, Okajima fell from their. His ERA doubled and his WHIP went from under one to a horrible 1.71.
Epstein saw these holes and signed steady veteran Dan Wheeler and former All-Star Bobby Jenks. The problem with this is they have now filled their bullpen with 3 pitchers who would have trouble pitching more than an inning and aren't used to pitching in any other situations other than with a lead. Wheeler was a more solid signing, but Jenks not only brings his declining numbers with him, but the drama of his "break up" with the Chicago White Sox. Even as a Red Sox, Jenks still found himself trading verbal jabs with White Sox manager Ozzie Guillien and general manager Ken Williams.
Example two: David Ortiz, the loveable left handed, power hitter of the Red Sox World Series runs in 2004 and 2007. "Big Papi" seemed to be the driving factor that led the offense to post season play, but Ortiz is no longer the factor he once was. Still productive, Ortiz' numbers dropped nearly twenty home runs in production and fifty RBI's. His batting average plummeted to .238 in 2009 and despite rising back up to .270 in 2010, was nowhere near his .300 plus numbers during their World Series runs. Pitchers feared throwing Ortiz inside, but not anymore. His bat has slowed down now that his once strength, is now his weakness.
Epstein went out and traded for Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is probably the most under-rated star player in baseball, at least up to this point, but it doesn't show confidence in Ortiz. Also, even though it's early Adrian's swing has changed. He has gone from pitcher friendly, Petco Park, to left handed hitter friendly Fenway. As many younger hitters have done in their life, he has changed his swing to try to hit more home runs. His once smooth swing is now a giant, sweeping uppercut. With his ability I believe he'll be able to adjust, but being seventeen games into the season so far, I don't know how hitting coach, Dave Magadan hasn't noticed.
Example Three: Jacoby Ellsbury, the speed of the team, is injury prone. He has talent that can be scary, but at times he's very breakable. Last season he played only eighteen games. The two seasons before that he never reached more than one hundred fifty three games and even then played in games with a slight injury. This season he's already played in sixteen games, but his average for the past two seasons hasn't been above .200.
To melody the situation, the Red Sox stole Carl Crawford from Tampa Bay and from the clutches of the Yankees and Angels. He's probably the Red Sox most solid signing, but has started out only hitting .149. This is one of the contributing factor to their poor start. Still, I believe Epstein saw the potential of Ellsbury being hurt again and had to find a way to ensure that his roster still had speed.
Other smaller holes/replacements are also on the team at the catcher position, but my point is that Epstein foresaw a rough time coming ahead and tried to plug the holes through veterans. In doing so, he has sacrificed possibly the team's future by trading their star prospect Anthony Rizzo to the San Diego Padres and tied up the Red Sox budget for years.
When all is said and done, I believe the Toronto Blue Jays will end up with a better record this season. They have young talent, hunger, and less drama. Sometimes "star" names aren't always the answer.
Some writers, before the season began, deemed the Boston Red Sox the odds on favorite to win the World Series this season. Nearly an eighth of the way into the new season and the Red Sox look like they could possibly end up with the worst record in the American League East. But how?
On paper the team appears loaded. Countless all-star appearances among the players on their roster. Talent, rings, veterans, and youth are everywhere on this roster. So how does a team that appears to be so good, do so poorly? It's a combination of factors. I believe General Manager, Theo Epstein saw holes in his roster and signed the big name free agents this past off season to plug the holes.
Example one: Jonathan Papelbon, "star closer" for the Red Sox is on the decline and not many people have taken notice. His ERA in past seasons hovered between the high ones and low twos. His 2010 season showed a different Papelbon. His ERA jumped to nearly four-3.90 to be exact-his walks nearly quadrupled from two seasons before, and he nearly doubled the amount of wild pitches he threw in his whole career. From a saves standpoint, he still remained in the high thirties, but they quality of his saves depleted. His saves were coming in games with three run leads instead of one run leads in the past. Even this season, he has three save in his teams total six wins, but all three saves were in games with three run leads and a lot less pressure.
The other "star" the Red Sox harbored in their bullpen was Hideki Okajima. An All-Star reliever in 2007, and putting up great stats in 2008 as well, Okajima fell from their. His ERA doubled and his WHIP went from under one to a horrible 1.71.
Epstein saw these holes and signed steady veteran Dan Wheeler and former All-Star Bobby Jenks. The problem with this is they have now filled their bullpen with 3 pitchers who would have trouble pitching more than an inning and aren't used to pitching in any other situations other than with a lead. Wheeler was a more solid signing, but Jenks not only brings his declining numbers with him, but the drama of his "break up" with the Chicago White Sox. Even as a Red Sox, Jenks still found himself trading verbal jabs with White Sox manager Ozzie Guillien and general manager Ken Williams.
Example two: David Ortiz, the loveable left handed, power hitter of the Red Sox World Series runs in 2004 and 2007. "Big Papi" seemed to be the driving factor that led the offense to post season play, but Ortiz is no longer the factor he once was. Still productive, Ortiz' numbers dropped nearly twenty home runs in production and fifty RBI's. His batting average plummeted to .238 in 2009 and despite rising back up to .270 in 2010, was nowhere near his .300 plus numbers during their World Series runs. Pitchers feared throwing Ortiz inside, but not anymore. His bat has slowed down now that his once strength, is now his weakness.
Epstein went out and traded for Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez is probably the most under-rated star player in baseball, at least up to this point, but it doesn't show confidence in Ortiz. Also, even though it's early Adrian's swing has changed. He has gone from pitcher friendly, Petco Park, to left handed hitter friendly Fenway. As many younger hitters have done in their life, he has changed his swing to try to hit more home runs. His once smooth swing is now a giant, sweeping uppercut. With his ability I believe he'll be able to adjust, but being seventeen games into the season so far, I don't know how hitting coach, Dave Magadan hasn't noticed.
Example Three: Jacoby Ellsbury, the speed of the team, is injury prone. He has talent that can be scary, but at times he's very breakable. Last season he played only eighteen games. The two seasons before that he never reached more than one hundred fifty three games and even then played in games with a slight injury. This season he's already played in sixteen games, but his average for the past two seasons hasn't been above .200.
To melody the situation, the Red Sox stole Carl Crawford from Tampa Bay and from the clutches of the Yankees and Angels. He's probably the Red Sox most solid signing, but has started out only hitting .149. This is one of the contributing factor to their poor start. Still, I believe Epstein saw the potential of Ellsbury being hurt again and had to find a way to ensure that his roster still had speed.
Other smaller holes/replacements are also on the team at the catcher position, but my point is that Epstein foresaw a rough time coming ahead and tried to plug the holes through veterans. In doing so, he has sacrificed possibly the team's future by trading their star prospect Anthony Rizzo to the San Diego Padres and tied up the Red Sox budget for years.
When all is said and done, I believe the Toronto Blue Jays will end up with a better record this season. They have young talent, hunger, and less drama. Sometimes "star" names aren't always the answer.
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